THE EFFECTS OF G-8’S GDP, US $ EXCHANGE RATE, AND GOLD EXCHANGE RATE TO THE INDONESIAN EXPORT

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This study attempts to analyze the relationship between Indonesian export volume, as the dependent variable, and real exchange rate ( Rp/US$), G8’s GDP, and Gold Exchange rate. The largest export object countries for Indonesia are USA, Germany, French, Italy, UK, Italy, Russia, Canada and Japan, which is called G8 countries. The destination export of Indonesia for over ten years are 31 % to G8 countries as shown in table 1. In particular, the study examines the implication of G8’s GDP, US $ real exchange rate change, and exchange price of Gold on the demand export of Indonesia. US $ exchange rate variable shows a negatively relationship in the long term with Indonesian export, and it is also affects the export volume decrease in the short run. On the other hand, Gold exchange rate and G-8’s GDP have positive and significant impact in the long run, whereas in the short run, changing of the variables adjust about 6% by export variable. In addition to discussing the factors that affect the exports in the aggregate, it is suggested that US$ give bad effect to Indonesian export, because the more fluctuating occur, the more risk Indonesian export it will be. On the contrary, there is an opportunity for using Gold base currency as a better alternative. In fact, it gives positively and significantly relationship with Indonesian export volume.

Keywords— G-8s, GDP, Exchange Rate, Gold.

Nama Prosiding : Proceeding of the International Conference on Social Science, Economics and Art 2011
ISSN : 978-983-42366-5-6
Tahun : 2011
Peneliti : Bedjo Santoso,,
Diunggah tanggal : Kamis, 2020-01-23